Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
Current price
59.5¢
Implied probability 59.5%
$1.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly define the spread condition: Real Madrid CF must win by two or more goals within regular time plus stoppage time, otherwise resolving to RB Leipzig. Resolution relies on the official UEFA final score, with a clear fallback hierarchy (Flashscore, Sofascore, consensus reporting) if the official source does not publish within two hours. Clear clauses handle postponements and cancellations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for October 21 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF" if Real Madrid CF win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "RB Leipzig". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Real Madrid CF will defeat RB Leipzig by at least 2 goals in their scheduled UEFA Champions League match, counting only regular play plus stoppage time.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Real Madrid CF if Real Madrid CF wins the match by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, the market resolves to RB Leipzig. If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game, or if no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of completion, the market resolves 50-50. Postponed games keep the market open until completed. Only regular play (90 minutes) plus stoppage time counts. Resolution is determined primarily by the official final score on uefa.com or official governing body statistics. Fallback sources include Flashscore after 2 hours, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Match date and time: — Scheduled kickoff time in ET
Resolution source
uefa.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.