Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
Current price
24.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 24.5%
$903.5 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on the score after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with official competition statistics serving as the primary source followed by an explicit hierarchy of fallback sources. A notable clause to be aware of is that if the match is canceled entirely without being rescheduled, the market resolves to Yes instead of being voided or split.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 21, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the soccer match between FC Bayern München and Arsenal FC ends in a draw. Unusually, if the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves to Yes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the match ends in a draw within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, or if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. It resolves to No otherwise. If the game is postponed, the market remains open until it is completed. The market resolves 50-50 (or to Draw where applicable) if no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the match concluding. The primary source is official statistics from the governing body or event organizers. If official statistics are not published within 2 hours of completion, data from Flashscore, then Sofascore, then a consensus of credible reporting will be used. Later revisions to official scores are disregarded.
Key dates
- Scheduled match date: — Date the match is scheduled to occur
Resolution source
Official statistics recognized by the governing body or event organizers, with fallbacks to Flashscore, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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