Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-21?
Current price
9.5¢
Implied probability 9.5%
$1.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the win condition for RB Leipzig, explicitly stating that it covers regular play plus stoppage time (90 minutes) and excludes extra time or shootouts. Postponements keep the market open until completion, and full cancellations resolve to No. Resolution follows a clear hierarchy of sources, starting with the official governing body or event organizer statistics, followed by designated sports data platforms (Flashscore, Sofascore) if official stats are delayed past two hours, with a 50-50 fallback only if no credible data is found within 24 hours. The terms are standard and leave very little room for surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 21, 2026 If RB Leipzig wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether RB Leipzig wins their soccer match scheduled for October 21, 2026. Resolution is based strictly on the outcome at the end of regular play plus stoppage time.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if RB Leipzig wins within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The market resolves to No if RB Leipzig does not win, or if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. If the match is postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, the market resolves 50-50 (or to Draw where applicable). Resolution is decided primarily by official statistics from the governing body or event organizers. If official stats are not published within 2 hours after conclusion, Flashscore data may be used, followed by Sofascore, and then a consensus of credible reporting. Revisions made after resolution are not accounted for.
Key dates
- Scheduled match date: — The match is scheduled to take place on this date.
Resolution source
Official statistics from the governing body or event organizers, with fallbacks to Flashscore, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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