Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21?
Current price
77.5¢
Implied probability 77.5%
$7.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clear and standard resolution rules for a sporting match. It specifies that only regular play plus stoppage time counts (excluding extra time or penalties if applicable), resolving to Yes for a Real Madrid victory and No for any other result. Postponements keep the market open, while full cancellations resolve to No. Resolution relies primarily on the official governing body's statistics, with clearly ordered fallback sources (Flashscore, Sofascore, then consensus reporting) and a 24-hour limit leading to a 50-50 resolution if all data fails. There are minimal surprises or discretionary ambiguities for participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 21, 2026 If Real Madrid CF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Real Madrid CF will win their soccer match scheduled for October 21, 2026. The resolution uniquely considers only the score at the end of regular play plus stoppage time, disregarding extra time or penalty shootouts.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Real Madrid CF wins the match within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The market resolves to No if Real Madrid CF does not win, or if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. If the match is postponed, the market stays open until the game finishes. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event concluding, the market resolves 50-50 or to Draw where applicable. Resolution is decided by the event's governing body or organizers. Fallback sources include Flashscore after 2 hours, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting. Subsequent score revisions after resolution are disregarded.
Key dates
- Match date: — Scheduled date of the game
Resolution source
Official statistics recognized by the governing body or event organizers, with fallbacks to Flashscore, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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