Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
Current price
53.5¢
Implied probability 53.5%
$648.8 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the win condition: Manchester City must win by 3 or more goals within regular time plus stoppage time, otherwise it resolves to AEK. The primary resolution source is explicitly stated as official UEFA data from uefa.com, with a clear fallback hierarchy (Flashscore, Sofascore, then consensus reporting) if official statistics are delayed. The rules also provide clear mechanisms for postponements, complete cancellations, and a 24-hour cutoff.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for October 20 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Manchester City FC" if Manchester City FC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "AEK". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Manchester City FC defeats AEK by at least 3 goals in their scheduled UEFA Champions League match.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Manchester City FC if Manchester City FC wins the game by 3 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The market resolves to AEK if Manchester City FC does not win by at least 3 goals. If the match is entirely canceled with no make-up game, or if no acceptable reporting data is available within 24 hours of the match's conclusion, the market resolves 50-50. If the match is postponed, it remains open until completed. Resolution is determined primarily by the official final score published on uefa.com. If official statistics are not published within 2 hours after conclusion, Flashscore, then Sofascore, then credible consensus reporting may be used.
Key dates
- Match start time: — Scheduled game time of October 20 at 3:00 PM ET
Resolution source
uefa.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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