Plague pandemic in 2026?
Current price
1.85¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.85%
$493.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has well-defined criteria requiring the World Health Organization to explicitly use the word pandemic in an official communication regarding plague or Yersinia pestis by December 31, 2026. The rules clearly state that a Public Health Emergency of International Concern does not qualify on its own without the specific pandemic label. While the primary source is official WHO publications and statements, the rules also permit falling back on a consensus of credible reporting to confirm statements, which introduces minor latitude.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the World Health Organization will explicitly characterize plague as a pandemic by the end of 2026. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone is insufficient to trigger resolution without the specific pandemic label.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying communications include official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications, but a Public Health Emergency of International Concern does not qualify on its own. The market resolves to No if no such explicit characterization occurs within the timeframe. Resolution is decided by official WHO communications or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET cutoff for official WHO pandemic characterization
Resolution source
World Health Organization official communications, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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