Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?
Current price
57¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 57%
$8.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an official resolution source (the Superior Electoral Court / TSE) and provide the exact mathematical formula for turnout as total votes cast divided by eligible voters. Tie-break rules are explicitly defined for values falling between brackets. A potential edge case to note is the timeout fallback rule, which resolves to the lowest bracket if results are not available by June 30, 2027, as well as the implied assumption that a second round will actually take place, but overall resolution mechanics are concrete and objective.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether official voter turnout in the second round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election falls within the 78% to 80% bracket.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official turnout rate—calculated as total votes cast divided by total eligible voters—falls within the 78–80% range, including cases where a value falls exactly on the boundary between this and a lower bracket. It resolves No if the final turnout falls outside this range. If election results are not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. Resolution is determined by official data published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE).
Key dates
- Second round election date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Brazil.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to the lowest bracket if results are not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
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