Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Current price
35.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 35.5%
$183.3K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies entirely on external URLs for the full resolution rules and specific determining sources across all three constituent election events, without providing self-contained resolution criteria or named authorities within the text.
Cannot assess: The market has no resolution rules to assess. (rules_absent)
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections. For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This multi-condition market measures whether three specific political events will occur: Flávio Bolsonaro winning Brazil's presidency, Gadi Eizenkot becoming Israel's Prime Minister, and Democrats winning the US Senate. Its resolution is unusual because it relies entirely on the combined outcomes of three separate constituent election markets.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the single listed outcome that simultaneously satisfies all three conditions: Flávio Bolsonaro wins the Brazilian presidential election, Gadi Eizenkot is the first Prime Minister sworn in following Israel's legislative election, and the Democratic Party wins control of the US Senate. The market resolves to Other if any of the three individual constituent markets resolves to Other. Additional options may be added prior to resolution. Resolution decisions are determined according to the sources specified in the three constituent markets.
Key dates
- Brazilian presidential election runoff: — Scheduled date for the runoff round
- Israeli legislative elections: — Scheduled date for the election
- United States midterm elections: — Scheduled date for the midterm elections
Resolution source
The sources named in the three linked constituent markets
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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