PolymarketCloses · in 804 daysPart of Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...? →

Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

Current price

25.5¢

+1¢ · 24h

Implied probability 25.5%
$113.5K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 24.5–25.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The market features highly detailed and precise criteria defining what constitutes a statewide moratorium, explicit capacity thresholds (100 MW), and clear legal mechanisms for enactment. It distinctly excludes executive orders, agency actions, local ordinances, and mere incentive suspensions. Official state records serve as the primary source, with clear rules regarding dates of enactment versus effective dates or subsequent legal challenges, leaving very little room for interpretation.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

High tradability

Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.

Book depth $27.8K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
24¢24.5¢25¢25.5¢26¢17:4601:4509:4317:41
24¢24.5¢25¢25.5¢26¢Oct 12Oct 15Oct 17Oct 19
20¢25¢30¢35¢40¢Oct 2Oct 8Oct 14Oct 19

Why it moved

No big moves in the last 7 days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Oklahoma enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment. Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify. The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings. This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment. The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Oklahoma; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether Oklahoma enacts a statewide statutory or constitutional moratorium on new data centers by December 31, 2028.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Oklahoma enacts a law or constitutional provision establishing a statewide moratorium prohibiting or suspending the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or all new data centers exceeding 100 MW capacity, between market creation and December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The moratorium must be mandatory on its face. Executive orders, agency orders, local bans, discretionary authority, and suspensions of tax incentives alone do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying law is enacted by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the Oklahoma state government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Key dates

  • Moratorium enactment deadline: — Deadline expires at 11:59 PM ET.

Resolution source

Official information from the state government of Oklahoma, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

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