Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?

Last captured price

35.5¢

−9¢ · 24h

Implied probability 35.5%
$97.6K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 19–55.5¢

Stale price · captured 17 hours ago

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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This market features clear, objective criteria with very low operational risk. Resolution relies entirely on a single specified data source, the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle chart, checking if the low price reaches $2,200 or below. The evaluation timeframe is precisely defined in Eastern Time for the entire calendar month of October, and the market resolves immediately upon meeting the condition or to No at month end. No significant discretionary judgment, vague phrasing, or unusual exception clauses are present.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Low
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $39K within 5¢ of mid
Stale book · captured 17 hours ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Up 21 points · 17 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 30% to 54% as Ethereum fell 1.66% on Binance during the hour, moving closer to the target and making a dip to $2,200 more likely. This drop in the underlying crypto price was the likely driver.

Largest hourly change: 21:00 UTC, 100% of the net 24-hour change.
ETH (Binance): −1.7% in the move hour, −0.2% over 24 hours.
Closes 14 days after the move hour.
6 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 2,300 (up), ↓ 2,100 (down), ↑ 2,800 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 18 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Oct 1, 2026

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether Ethereum reaches a low of $2,200 or lower on Binance during October. Resolution relies exclusively on the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle data, excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves immediately to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for ETH/USDT has a final Low price equal to or lower than $2,200 between October 1 at 00:00 AM ET and October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle chart data. Prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or alternative trading pairs are disregarded.

Key dates

Start of measurement period: Oct 1, 2026, 12:00 AM (UTC−4) — 00:00 AM ET on the first day of October
End of measurement period: Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (UTC−4) — 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October

Resolution source

Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute chart

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 11:33 UTC

Community forecast

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