Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$73.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules are straightforward, objective, and leave virtually no room for discretion. Resolution is strictly tied to a specific metric: the High price of any 1-minute ETH/USDT candle on Binance during October (measured from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last day). It clearly identifies the exact URL, trading pair, and chart settings required, explicitly ruling out other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot price sources. The market resolves immediately to Yes if the price touches or exceeds $4,500 at any point within the window, and defaults to No otherwise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ethereum reaches a price of $4,500 on Binance during the month of October. Resolution is based strictly on the 1-minute candle data for the ETH/USDT pair on Binance.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for ETH/USDT between 00:00 AM ET on October 1 and 11:59 PM ET on October 31 has a final High price equal to or greater than $4,500. It resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this price threshold during the specified period. Resolution is determined solely using Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute chart data, disregarding prices from other exchanges or trading pairs.
Key dates
- Start of October measurement window: — 00:00 AM ET
- End of October measurement window: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle High prices
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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