Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
Current price
27.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.5%
$451.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly list the seven specific individuals and define what qualifies as a felony sex crime across federal, state, and local jurisdictions. The resolution criteria rely on official government charges or indictments, with a fallback to a consensus of credible reporting, leaving limited room for subjective judgment. A specific cutoff timestamp is provided, and there are no unexpected clauses or hidden exceptions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In a civil complaint filed in September 2026, a Cornell University student alleged that she was drugged and sexually assaulted in October 2024 by multiple members of the Chi Phi fraternity at the fraternity's house in Ithaca, New York. Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris and Scott Kretzschmar are the 7 individual defendants alleged in the September 2026 civil complaint to have participated in the alleged October 2024 sexual assault. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris or Scott Kretzschmar with a felony sex crime between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A felony sex crime refers to any offense classified as a felony and as a sex offense under the law of the charging jurisdiction, including any felony sex offense defined in Article 130 of the New York Penal Law. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether any of the seven individuals named as defendants in a related civil complaint are formally charged with or indicted for a felony sex crime in any U.S. federal or state jurisdiction.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any U.S. federal or state jurisdiction formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Matthew Ingalls, Johnathan Newell, Winston Lee, Gillio Lopes, Diego Sarabia, Scott Norris, or Scott Kretzschmar with a felony sex crime between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying offenses include any crime classified as both a felony and a sex offense in the charging jurisdiction, including offenses under Article 130 of the New York Penal Law. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The market is resolved using official information from U.S. governmental sources, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — Market cutoff at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from US governmental sources, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.