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GeopoliticsCloses · in 107 days$23.1K volumePart of: Next Israeli Minister of Interior? →

Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

3 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves based on the first individual to assume office as Israeli Minister of Interior in the government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves based on the first individual to assume office as Israeli Minister of Interior in the government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. A key detail is that interim or caretaker ministers explicitly do not count, and the minister must be approved via a Knesset vote of confidence. If the ministry is restructured or renamed, the rules rely on a consensus of credible reporting to determine whether a successor post retains primary responsibilities, introducing qualitative judgment. In the event responsibilities are split across multiple new roles, an arbitrary alphabetical tie-breaker applies. Additionally, while official Israeli government information serves as the primary source, broad media consensus may be used as an alternative decider.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

37%

chance

▲ +0.5 pts · 24h

Yes37¢
No63¢
No Next Minister by Feb 28 · Yes · 1MO 44.5 H 51.5 L 28.0 C 37.0−7.5 (−16.9%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +10 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC

The price rose from 37% to 47% in thin trading conditions, with an order book showing zero depth within 5 cents and a 21% spread, making liquidity mechanics the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 110 days after the move hour.

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 22:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Interior in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Interior will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Interior” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Interior are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Interior assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether no qualifying individual assumes office as the Israeli Minister of Interior in the government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections by February 28, 2027.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes (or "No Next Minister by Feb 28") if no qualifying individual assumes office as the Israeli Minister of Interior by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to a specific named individual if that person first assumes office as the Israeli Minister of Interior (or a confirmed primary successor position) in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation vote. Interim or caretaker ministers and subsequent replacements do not count. If primary responsibilities are split across multiple successor positions, the outcome selects the individual whose full name comes first alphabetically. Resolution is decided using official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·