Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
Current price
1.45¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.45%
$229.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide exceptionally clear and precise legal criteria for what constitutes an enacted statewide moratorium, including specific capacity thresholds (100 MW), explicit exclusions for purely local bans, tax incentive pauses, executive orders, or discretionary agency powers, and detailed definitions of statutory enactment. Resolution relies primarily on official state government actions and records, leaving very little room for interpretation or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment. Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify. The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings. This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment. The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Indiana; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the State of Indiana enacts a binding, mandatory statewide statutory or constitutional moratorium on new data centers (or those over 100 MW) by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Indiana enacts a statutory law or constitutional provision establishing a mandatory statewide moratorium on new data centers, or a subset including all new data centers with interconnection capacity over 100 MW per facility, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The policy must generally prohibit or suspend approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation across the entire state. Executive orders, agency orders, local moratoria, discretionary authorizations, and tax incentive suspensions alone do not qualify. Resolution relies on the date of enactment, regardless of subsequent repeal, invalidation, or future effective dates. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary resolution source is official information from the Indiana state government, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Moratorium enactment deadline: — Deadline expires at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the state government of Indiana, or a consensus of credible reporting
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