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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?

Current price

2.3¢

+0.05¢ · 24h

Implied probability 2.3%
$85.2K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 1.65–9¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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This market relies on precise, programmatic criteria using 1-minute candle high/low prices from Pyth's ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures feed (CLL), with official ICE daily settlement data serving as an explicit fallback. The rules provide specific mathematical roll dates for defining the active month contract, clear session hours, and define the target boundary explicitly. There is no decider discretion or ambiguous wording.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $46.8K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
1.5¢2¢2.5¢17:4601:4509:4317:41
0¢5¢10¢Oct 12Oct 15Oct 17Oct 19
0¢10¢20¢30¢Oct 5Oct 10Oct 15Oct 19

Why it moved

No big moves in the last 7 days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures price drops to or below $75 during October 2026 trading sessions according to Pyth 1-minute candle data.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (CLL) records a final Low price of $75 or lower during an applicable October 2026 trading session after market creation. Prices are evaluated without rounding. The Active Month rolls to the next listed contract at the open of the third-to-last trading session of the front month. The market resolves to No if the price never drops to or below $75 during the period, or if the Active Month contract does not trade at all. Resolution is decided using Pyth 1-minute candle data. If Pyth data is unavailable due to an outage or disruption, official daily high/low prices from ICE Futures Europe serve as the fallback source.

Key dates

  • October 2026 evaluation period start: — Beginning of the trading sessions evaluated for October 2026.
  • Market end date: — Latest potential resolution cutoff following the October 2026 trading period.

Resolution source

Pyth (ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month feed CLL), with ICE Futures Europe official daily reports as fallback

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