Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?
Current price
46.5¢
+16.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 46.5%
$197.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a specific programmatic feed from Pyth tracking 1-minute candles for the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures active contract, with clear fallback rules to ICE official reports if the feed fails. However, there is a discrepancy between the question and the detailed rules: the question asks whether the price will hit $105 in October without specifying a year, whereas the text explicitly restricts the evaluation window to trading sessions in October 2026. Participants who assume the current year rather than October 2026 could be caught off guard. The mechanics for defining the active month rollover and trading session hours are otherwise thoroughly specified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures reaches a high price of $105 or higher during an October 2026 trading session.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (CLL) records a final High price of $105 or higher during an eligible October 2026 trading session after market creation. Prices are evaluated exactly as published without rounding. The market resolves to No if this price threshold is not reached, or if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the timeframe. The primary deciding source is the Pyth CLL 1-minute candle data feed. If Pyth data is unavailable due to an outage or disruption, official daily high prices published by ICE Futures Europe for the Active Month contract serve as the fallback source.
Key dates
- Trading session start month: — Start of the October 2026 evaluation period.
- Trading session end month: — End of the October 2026 evaluation period.
Resolution source
Pyth (ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month feed, ticker CLL), with ICE Futures Europe official daily reports as fallback
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