Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?
Last captured price
99.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 99.95%
$221.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a specific programmatic data feed (Pyth 1-minute candles for ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures) with a clearly defined backup source (ICE daily settlement reports). However, a position holder should note a key discrepancy between the question and the detailed rules: the title mentions only 'October', while the text explicitly defines the evaluation period as 'October 2026', which could catch out anyone assuming it refers to the current or nearest calendar year. Aside from this date specification and the complex roll schedule defining which specific futures contract month is 'Active', the resolution criteria, trading hours, and data feed URLs are thoroughly specified with minimal room for decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (CLL) reach a high price of at least $95 during October 2026 trading sessions, as tracked by Pyth 1-minute candles for the active contract month.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (CLL) records a final High price equal to or greater than $95 at any point after creation during an October 2026 trading session. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not reached, or if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the timeframe. The Active Month is defined as the nearest contract until its final three trading sessions, when it rolls to the next listed contract. If Pyth 1-minute data is unavailable due to an outage, ICE Futures Europe official daily high/low prices serve as the fallback source. The primary resolution source is Pyth (CLL).
Key dates
- Trading period: Market evaluates trading sessions during October 2026. Date as stated: 2026-10.
Resolution source
Pyth
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