Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in October?
Last captured price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$21.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves using a clearly defined and objective data source, specifically Pyth 1-minute candle data for ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures. The rules explicitly define what constitutes the active contract month, when roll dates occur, and the exact trading session hours to consider. An unambiguous backup source is also designated if the primary data feed experiences an outage. The threshold condition of hitting $50 or lower is mathematically precise, leaving minimal room for unexpected outcomes or discretionary interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month price drops to $50 or lower during an October 2026 trading session.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (CLL) records a final Low or High price equal to or below $50 at any point after market creation during an October 2026 trading session. Prices are taken exactly as published without rounding. The market resolves to No if the price threshold is not reached, or if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the timeframe. The primary deciding source is Pyth 1-minute candles for CLL. If Pyth data is unavailable due to an outage or disruption, the official daily high/low price published by ICE Futures Europe may be used instead.
Key dates
- Observation period begins: — Start of October 2026 trading sessions.
- Observation period ends: — End of October 2026 trading sessions.
Resolution source
Pyth (ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month data, symbol CLL)
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