Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?
Current price
4.15¢
−3.85¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.15%
$248.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules provide precise, programmatic criteria for resolution using a named data feed. Resolution depends strictly on whether any 1-minute candle published by Pyth for the active ICE WTI Crude Futures contract records a low price at or below $80 during October 2026 trading sessions. The definitions for active contract rolling, trading session hours, and fallback sources in case of Pyth outages are explicitly detailed with direct links to exchange schedules and reports, leaving almost no room for discretion or interpretive dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month "High" and "Low" prices available at https://app.pyth.com/explore?search=CLL, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures Active Month hits a low price of $80 or below during October 2026 trading sessions according to Pyth 1-minute candle data.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Pyth 1-minute candle for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (CLL) has a final Low price equal to or below $80 at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026. Only prices achieved during official trading sessions of the timeframe's business days count, without rounding. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not reached, or if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the timeframe. The Active Month rolls to the next contract at the open of the third-to-last trading session of the nearest contract. Resolution is determined by Pyth 1-minute candle data for CLL, with official daily high/low prices published by ICE Futures Europe serving as the fallback source if Pyth data is unavailable.
Key dates
- Trading period begins: — Trading sessions for October 2026 begin.
- Trading period ends: — End of October 2026 trading timeframe.
Resolution source
Pyth
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.