Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?
Current price
15.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 15.5%
$9.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly designate CNN's national exit poll for the US House as the primary source, with a precise snapshot timestamp of 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026, and an unambiguous fallback hierarchy (CBS, then ABC, then Other). However, there is an exceptional tie-breaking clause where a tie for the greatest share resolves to whichever tied party comes first alphabetically (e.g., Democrat before Republican), which could produce an unexpected result if a tie occurs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white voters in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures which political party wins the largest share of white voters in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections according to specific national exit polls, with ties broken alphabetically.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the party that wins the greatest share of white voters in national exit polling for the U.S. House. In the event of a tie for first place, the market resolves based on the tied party whose name comes first alphabetically. The market resolves to Other if none of the designated organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026, at 11:59PM ET. Resolution relies on CNN exit polling viewed at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable at that time, the market waits one full calendar day for an update before falling back to exit polling from CBS, and then ABC.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held.
- Initial exit poll evaluation: — National exit polling on cnn.com viewed at 12:00PM ET.
- Fallback deadline: — If no listed organization provides polling by 11:59PM ET, market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
CNN exit polling (with fallbacks to CBS and ABC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.