Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?
Current price
5.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$10.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title suggests a political event regarding the Senate, but the market actually resolves entirely on tracking odds on an aggregator website for four consecutive hourly readings. The resolution criteria are highly programmatic, referencing an exact URL, precise data points, decimal rounding, and specific handling for missing values (NO_PRINT). However, participants must watch out for significant exceptional rules: the title mentions November 2 without specifying a year, while the detailed text sets the window through November 3, 2026. Furthermore, there is an override clause that resolves the market early if the underlying market decides officially, as well as a 48-hour delay window for technical corrections to data points that could alter whether a consecutive four-hour streak occurred.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party's hourly odds value is higher than the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as the Republican Party being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Republican Party or the Democratic Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Republican Party and the Democratic Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Republican hourly odds exceed Democratic hourly odds for control of the Senate in 2026 for four consecutive hours on PredictionMarketOdds.com before November 3, 2026.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party's hourly odds value is higher than the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the Senate Control 2026 listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive published hourly values between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Equal values end a consecutive run, while hours with NO_PRINT are disregarded. If the underlying market is officially decided before the deadline, it resolves to Yes if Republicans win. Otherwise, the market resolves to No, including if no odds are published. Resolution is decided by PredictionMarketOdds.com.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Latest time for published hourly odds datapoints to count towards resolution.
Resolution source
PredictionMarketOdds.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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