Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?
Current price
49¢
+3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 49%
$6.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria rely on three named major news networks calling the races, falling back to official state election certification if they do not reach consensus. An explicit long-stop deadline of March 31, 2027, covers potential runoffs or recounts. The primary risk to track is the party affiliation rule: any candidate running on the ballot as an independent or third-party candidate does not count toward a Democratic victory even if they caucus with the Democratic Party, and an independent or third-party victory in any of the three states triggers a resolution to 'Other'.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Texas, Michigan, and Maine that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Democratic candidates win all three U.S. Senate seats in Texas, Michigan, and Maine in the 2026 elections, including any runoffs. It resolves to Other if an independent/third-party wins or if results remain unknown by March 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Democratic candidates sweep and win all three Senate seats in Texas, Michigan, and Maine. Party representation requires being the party's nominee or having ballot-listed affiliation; independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of affiliation. The market resolves to No if the Democrats do not sweep all three seats, provided no condition triggers Other. The market resolves to Other if an independent or third-party candidate wins any of the three races, or if the results of any of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027. Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC determine the outcome once all three call the relevant races; if they lack consensus, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date for the Senate general elections.
- Resolution Deadline: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not conclusively known by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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