Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Current price
80.5¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 80.5%
$864.2K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market title asks broadly about a rate hike in 2026, but the specific rules strictly limit the qualifying window to increases announced between September 17, 2026 and the conclusion of the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Any rate increases occurring earlier in 2026—including any hike announced at the September 15–16 meeting—are explicitly excluded and will not count toward a positive resolution. The target metric itself is clearly defined as the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, and the primary resolution mechanism is anchored directly to the official Federal Reserve website with defined timing following the December meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between September 17, 2026, and the end of the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Rate changes announced at the September 2026 FOMC meeting are explicitly excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026, and the completion of the December 2026 FOMC meeting, including any hike resulting from that December meeting. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026, qualify, but rate changes announced at the September 15–16, 2026 meeting do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying rate hike occurs. Resolution to No cannot happen until the Fed releases its rate decision following the December meeting. Resolution is determined by the official Federal Reserve website, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- September FOMC Meeting: — Meetings run September 15 to 16, 2026; rate changes from this meeting do not count.
- Tracking Window Starts: — Qualifying window for rate hikes begins.
- December FOMC Meeting: — Meeting scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026; market cannot resolve No until its rate decision is released.
Resolution source
Official website of the Federal Reserve, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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