50.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 50.5%
$88.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
The rules clearly define what constitutes assuming the office of German Chancellor, specifically requiring election by the Bundestag and formal appointment by the Federal President while explicitly excluding acting or caretaker chancellors. If no new individual assumes the role before the deadline of December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or if the incumbent is re-elected, the outcome resolves definitively as titled. Official government sources serve as the primary decider, with credible media consensus available as a backup.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The price fell from 62% to 51%, but available news reports and market data offer no clear catalyst for the move.
AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 10:05 UTC
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether Germany will have a new Chancellor other than Friedrich Merz before 2028.
The market resolves to "No Next Chancellor before 2028" if no individual other than Friedrich Merz takes office as Chancellor by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor. Otherwise, it resolves to the next individual other than Friedrich Merz who assumes the office. To count, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President; acting or caretaker Chancellors do not count. Official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany decides resolution, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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