Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 75-84 years old?
Current price
4.9¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.9%
$195.2 total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules calculate the nominee's age on the specific calendar day they formally accept the nomination, determined by a consensus of official party announcements, public records, or credible reporting. A significant condition is that once an individual formally accepts, any later replacement prior to the general election will not alter the resolution. Furthermore, if no candidate accepts the nomination by November 7, 2028, the market defaults to the lowest bracket, reflecting phrasing carried over from a multi-option market structure. Beyond these specific default and replacement clauses, the resolution mechanics are straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the age of the individual who formally wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they accept the nomination. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth. In the event that no individual has won and accepted such nomination by November 7, 2028, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the individual who formally wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president is between 75 and 84 years old on the day of acceptance.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the individual who formally wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president is 75 to 84 years old on the day they accept the nomination. Age advances immediately at the start of the calendar day of their birth date. The market resolves to No if the nominee's age on that acceptance day falls outside the 75-84 range. If no individual has won and accepted the nomination by November 7, 2028, the market resolves to the lowest listed bracket. Any replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources and official public records, or credible sources if necessary.
Key dates
- Nomination deadline: — If no individual accepts the nomination by this date, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources and official public records, or credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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