1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes participation in a governing coalition by requiring at least one cabinet minister, explicitly excluding confidence-and-supply or external parliamentary support arrangements.
The rules clearly define what constitutes participation in a governing coalition by requiring at least one cabinet minister, explicitly excluding confidence-and-supply or external parliamentary support arrangements. A detailed matching and subset hierarchy handles outcomes if exact party combinations are not listed, alongside clear tie-breaking mechanics based on Riksdag seats and vote counts. Official government and parliamentary confirmation acts as the backstop for resolution, accompanied by a definitive longstop date of July 31, 2027. Holders should note the strict matching hierarchy, where an option with a subset of governing parties resolves to Yes only if no more complete matching option exists.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
46%
chance▼ −5.9 pts · 24h
The market price dropped from 48% to 38%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 22:20 UTC
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
This market measures whether the Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), Liberals (L), and Centre Party (C) will form the first ruling coalition in Sweden after the 2026 election, based on which listed option most completely matches the cabinet-holding parties.
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag resolving any ambiguity. It resolves to Yes if the first ruling coalition officially formed after the 2026 election contains all the listed parties (M, KD, L, and C), with each providing at least one cabinet minister, provided no other listed option more completely covers the coalition. Parties providing only parliamentary support without a cabinet post do not qualify. It resolves to No if any of its listed parties are not in the coalition, or if another listed option more completely matches the coalition. It resolves to Other if the coalition does not match any listed option or if no coalition is confirmed by July 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
A consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·