Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Last captured price
3.2¢
+0.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.2%
$240.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated authority or official tracking body, which leaves room for interpretation during fluid conflict situations. The rules provide specific boundaries by enumerating seven qualifying districts while explicitly excluding the Al Buraiqeh (Little Aden) district, meaning presence in parts of Greater Aden will not count toward a positive resolution. Additionally, distinct activities such as offshore naval presence, bombardment, sabotage, or diplomatic emissaries are excluded from qualifying as entry. If reporting remains unclear at the deadline, an extra three-day observation window applies before the market defaults to a negative outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Houthi military forces enter specified districts of Aden, Yemen by October 31, 2026. A notable detail is that entry into the Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) alone is explicitly excluded and does not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces, or armed forces operating under their direction, enter and deliberately operate within specified districts of Aden by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying districts include Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Entry does not count if personnel are prisoners of war, diplomatic or commercial emissaries, or if actions are limited to bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence, unverified claims, or entry into Al Buraiqeh alone. Otherwise, the market resolves to No, including if genuine ambiguity is not resolved within three calendar days after the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Entry must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
- Ambiguity grace period end: — Market may remain open up to three days after the deadline in cases of genuine ambiguity.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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