Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise geographic boundaries by listing seven specific districts of Aden that qualify while explicitly excluding the Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden), which could catch participants expecting full governorate coverage off guard. Clear definitions also exclude offshore naval actions, remote bombardment, prisoners of war, and diplomatic emissaries. However, verification relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting in an active conflict zone where claims and ground realities may be difficult to verify independently, leaving substantial judgement to the resolution decider. A three-day grace period is provided if ambiguity exists at the deadline, defaulting to a negative outcome if entry is not established.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Houthi military forces enter specified districts of Aden, Yemen by September 30, 2026. Resolution is notable for explicitly excluding the Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) and diplomatic emissaries from qualifying as entry.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), or armed forces operating under its direction or on its behalf, deliberately operate within specified districts of Aden by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying districts include Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Entry into Al Buraiqeh district alone, presence as prisoners of war or diplomatic emissaries, bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence, or unsubstantiated claims do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met, including after a three-day extension if ambiguity exists. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — 11:59 PM ET
- Ambiguity resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET (end of the third calendar day after the specified date)
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.