Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?
Current price
92.5¢
Implied probability 92.5%
$39.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market resolves strictly based on which player is officially announced as the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner. France Football is designated as the primary authority, with general credible reporting available as a backup. A clear cutoff date of December 31, 2026, handles potential ceremony delays or cancellations by resolving to an alternate outcome, leaving little ambiguity for participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the player who is officially named the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If no 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alexia Putellas will win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or, resolving based on the official winner announced by France Football.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alexia Putellas is officially named the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or winner. The market resolves to No if another player is named the winner. The market resolves to Other if no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined primarily by official information from France Football, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted as a source.
Key dates
- Ballon d'Or ceremony: — The scheduled date for the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony in London.
- Announcement deadline: — Deadline of 11:59 PM ET for a winner to be announced before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
France Football, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.