Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves directly from official Bank of Canada announcements for the December 9, 2026 decision.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves directly from official Bank of Canada announcements for the December 9, 2026 decision. However, participants should be aware of specific rounding rules that could surprise someone reading only the title: any decrease strictly less than 25 basis points (such as a 10 bps cut) will be automatically rounded up and counted as a 25 bps decrease. Additionally, emergency rate cuts occurring outside the scheduled decision window are explicitly excluded from resolution.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Bank of Canada decreases its overnight rate target by 25 basis points at its December 2026 interest rate announcement.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Bank of Canada reduces the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points at its December 2026 announcement. Decreases of less than 25 bps are rounded to 25 bps, while larger decreases round to the nearest 25 bps (rounding away from zero if equidistant). If the rate uses a range, the change to the upper bound is measured. The market resolves to No if the rate is increased, unchanged, decreased by a different rounded amount, or if the meeting is cancelled or postponed past the next scheduled announcement. Emergency rate changes outside the scheduled announcement are disregarded. Resolution is decided using official Bank of Canada releases.
Resolution source
Official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·