KOSPI all-time high before 2028?
Current price
27.5¢
Implied probability 27.5%
$40.5K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules contain a severe internal contradiction: they require the index to exceed 9,385.59, citing it as an all-time high set on June 19, 2026, which is impossible for a historical record. The actual all-time high of the KOSPI is roughly 3,305.21. A participant expecting the market to track whether the real historical record is broken faces an arbitrarily inflated threshold nearly three times higher. While the timeframe and regular session conditions are explicitly defined, the primary source is Yahoo Finance with fallback to a consensus of credible reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) records an intraday or close value above 9,385.59 — its official all-time intraday high as published by the Korea Exchange, set on June 19, 2026 — at any point between the creation of this market and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM KST. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only index values recorded during the regular trading session of the Korea Exchange will be considered. Values implied by futures, ETFs, options, or other derivative instruments will not qualify. Index values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. The primary resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EKS11/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether South Korea's KOSPI index will surpass its specified all-time high value before 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the KOSPI records an intraday or close value strictly above 9,385.59 during a regular trading session between market creation and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM KST. Only regular trading session values published by the Korea Exchange count, used exactly without rounding, while derivative instruments like futures or ETFs do not qualify. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not exceeded within the timeframe. Yahoo Finance serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market evaluation period ends at 11:59 PM KST
Resolution source
Yahoo Finance or a consensus of credible reporting
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