Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2027?
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify what constitutes a conviction, detailing how dismissals, plea agreements, and verdicts of not guilty by reason of mental illness are handled. Resolution relies primarily on official court judgments and applies to the initial judgment regardless of subsequent appeals. The main detail to watch is timing: while the headline date is December 31, 2027, the market allows resolution past this deadline if a retrial following a mistrial commences before that date. Additionally, the market will resolve early to No if all murder charges are dropped or reduced.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Lindsay Clancy has been charged by The Commonwealth of Massachusetts with three counts of murder for the death of her three children. You can read more about that here: https://media.wbur.org/wp/2023/09/clancy-indictment.pdf. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lindsay Clancy is convicted of at least one murder charge in the ongoing Commonwealth v. Lindsay Clancy case by either the specified date, 11:59 PM ET or, in the event of a mistrial, by the end of any retrial that begins before that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, or results in a verdict of Not Guilty for all murder charges (including by reason of lack of criminal responsibility due to mental illness), this market will resolve to "No". A plea agreement will qualify to resolve this market "Yes" only if it results in a judgment of conviction for murder. If all murder charges against Clancy are dropped, or otherwise changed such that they are no longer considered murder, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Lindsay Clancy is convicted of at least one murder charge in the Commonwealth v. Lindsay Clancy case by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lindsay Clancy is convicted of at least one murder charge by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or by the end of any retrial beginning before that date following a mistrial. A plea agreement counts for Yes only if it results in a judgment of conviction for murder. The market resolves to No if the case ends in a dismissal, if no judgment is rendered, if she is found Not Guilty on all murder charges (including due to lack of criminal responsibility from mental illness), or if all murder charges are dropped or altered to non-murder offenses. Appeals are disregarded, as resolution depends on the initial judgment. The primary resolution source is an official judgment delivered by the ruling court, though other credible reporting may be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for conviction or the start of a retrial after a mistrial.
Resolution source
An official judgment delivered by the ruling court, or other credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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