Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election?
Current price
13.5¢
Implied probability 13.5%
$1.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on standard political election mechanics for the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State race. Resolution is tied to the political party rather than a fixed individual, with clear rules specifying that candidate replacements update automatically to track the nominee. While the initial resolution standard relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than exclusively waiting for official certification, it includes a concrete fallback to the official state certifying authority if any dispute arises. A generous timeout date of July 31, 2027, prevents prolonged deadlocks while leaving ample time for post-election canvassing, recounts, or legal challenges.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party candidate wins the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election, tracking any nominee replacements prior to election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party candidate wins the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. If any named candidate is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by July 31, 2027. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the electoral authority certifying the election in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.