Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Attorney General election?
Current price
32¢
Implied probability 32%
$2.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on whether the Democratic nominee wins the Ohio Attorney General election in November 2026. The rules explicitly handle potential nominee replacements by tying resolution to the party rather than a specific individual. Outcome determination primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, which introduces minor subjective judgment regarding what constitutes consensus, though it falls back to official certification from the state electoral authority if any ambiguity arises. A prolonged dispute or delay is accommodated by a long backstop date of July 31, 2027, resolving to Other if an outcome remains uncertified by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Ohio Attorney General election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Ohio Attorney General election. If a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party candidate (including any replacement nominee) wins the 2026 Ohio Attorney General election. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the electoral authority responsible for certifying the election in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the scheduled election.
- Definitive results deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the electoral authority responsible for certifying the election in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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