Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election?
Current price
54.5¢
Implied probability 54.5%
$3.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the political party of the winner of the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, but specifically defaults to official certification from the relevant election authority if any ambiguity arises. The rules clearly state that if a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement candidate for that party. A long backstop deadline of July 31, 2027, resolves the market to Other if results are not definitively known, providing ample time for canvassing, recounts, or legal challenges.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party candidate wins the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election. If a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party candidate wins the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided according to a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the electoral authority responsible for certifying the election in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the scheduled Iowa Attorney General election
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline after which the market resolves to Other if results remain unknown
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the official electoral authority responsible for certifying results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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