Will the Republican win the North Carolina Supreme Court general election?
Last captured price
19.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19.5%
$451.4 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market establishes clear resolution criteria for the 2026 North Carolina Supreme Court election. It specifically requires a unanimous consensus among three named media outlets (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) to resolve early, and defaults unambiguously to the state's official certification if they do not agree. Party affiliation rules are plainly defined, explicitly noting that independent candidates will not count toward major party outcomes regardless of personal affiliation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 North Carolina Supreme Court election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee wins the 2026 North Carolina Supreme Court general election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options even if they have an affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 North Carolina Supreme Court election. It resolves No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican or Democratic options regardless of party affiliation. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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