Will Ben Dudman win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?
Current price
31¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 31%
$4.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies the target election on October 27, 2026, and names the Tasmanian Electoral Commission as the definitive official fallback source in case of ambiguity. It clarifies that interim or temporary appointments prior to the election do not count. There is a standard backstop resolution date of March 31, 2027, which gives ample time for election certification, meaning the risk of unexpected resolution mechanics is very low.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Meander Valley Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ben Dudman will become the next Mayor of Meander Valley Council as a result of the Tasmanian local government election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ben Dudman becomes the next Mayor of the Meander Valley Council area as a result of the scheduled election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed prior to the election do not count. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the mayoral election. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election date: — Local government elections are scheduled across Tasmania.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if the outcome is unknown by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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