Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Last captured price
35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 35%
$269.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on evaluating whether discussions qualify as substantive peace negotiations rather than humanitarian coordination, such as prisoner exchanges or grain transit, which do not count unless broader peace terms are actively discussed. The criteria allow indirect in-person meetings through mediators or facilitators, adding interpretation over whether a third-party diplomatic effort meets the authorization threshold. There is no single official arbiter; the outcome depends on official statements or a consensus of credible reporting to establish whether qualifying talks took place before the November 30, 2026 deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether official representatives of Russia and Ukraine hold an in-person diplomatic meeting to discuss a ceasefire, peace agreement, or substantive de-escalation by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an authorized, in-person diplomatic meeting occurs between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET to discuss a ceasefire, peace agreement, or substantive de-escalation. Indirect in-person meetings through authorized mediators qualify. Meetings strictly limited to humanitarian issues, remote meetings, phone calls, brief greetings, and chance encounters do not qualify. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. The resolution sources are official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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