Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on evaluating whether contacts between Russian and Ukrainian representatives meet specific criteria, including being in-person (even if indirect through mediators) and addressing broader peace or ceasefire terms rather than solely humanitarian matters. Because no single official registry or authority determines this, the market relies on assessing a consensus of credible reporting to judge the authorized capacity of attendees and the substantive nature of the discussions, leaving room for interpretation around backchannel or mediator-facilitated diplomacy.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
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Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether official representatives of Russia and Ukraine hold an in-person diplomatic meeting to negotiate a ceasefire, peace agreement, or conflict de-escalation by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an in-person diplomatic meeting occurs between authorized official representatives of Russia and Ukraine by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying meetings must aim to discuss a ceasefire, peace agreement, or substantive de-escalation; indirect in-person meetings through authorized mediators also qualify. Meetings restricted strictly to humanitarian issues, brief greetings, chance encounters, phone calls, or remote meetings do not count. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is decided using official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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