Will the Republicans win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Current price
11¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11%
$977.8 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party nominee or independent candidate secures the most valid votes in Maricopa County during the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Arizona Secretary of State or Maricopa County government if any ambiguity arises. Standard election mechanics apply, with a generous timeout date of March 31, 2027 resolving to 'Other' if outcomes remain unknown, and an explicit alphabetical tiebreaker by candidate last name if vote counts match exactly. Automatic updates apply if nominees are replaced prior to election day.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Maricopa County in the general election for Governor of Arizona, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the most valid votes in Maricopa County during the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican nominee receives the most valid votes in Maricopa County. Ties are broken alphabetically by candidate last name. Replacement nominees will represent the party if named prior to election day. The market resolves to No if another candidate finishes with the highest ranking. The market resolves to Other if results in Maricopa County are not definitively known by March 31, 2027. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the government of Arizona, the Secretary of State, and Maricopa County used if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — Scheduled date for the general election for Governor of Arizona.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if county results are not definitively known by this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the government of Arizona, the Office of the Secretary of State, and Maricopa County.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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