Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.4%
$10.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes deportation, explicitly requiring the formal removal to be fully implemented rather than just ordered. It explicitly excludes voluntary departure, extradition, and unexecuted removal orders. Resolution relies on official government statements or credible reporting from major news outlets, which leaves standard media judgment discretion but presents minimal ambiguity regarding the underlying physical event.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rep. Ilhan Omar is officially deported from the United States by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Omar from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count. A removal order that has not been implemented will not be sufficient to resolve this market. The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Representative Ilhan Omar is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rep. Ilhan Omar is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Deportation requires formal removal by government authorities for legal or administrative reasons; voluntary departure, extradition, relocation without an official deportation order, or an unimplemented removal order do not qualify. The market resolves to No if she is not officially deported by the deadline. The outcome is determined by credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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