Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide exceptionally clear and precise criteria for resolution.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide exceptionally clear and precise criteria for resolution. Rather than relying on subjective interpretations of what constitutes capturing a city, the market ties resolution to an exact geographic coordinate using specific map layers published by the Institute for the Study of War. It clearly specifies which layers count, which do not, and mandates that the shading persist through a full daily update cycle to filter out map glitches. An early resolution trigger exists if the condition is met before the deadline, and subsequent loss of control does not reverse a positive outcome. Clear fallback sources and negotiated settlement rules are also explicitly defined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
14%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rules history
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia captures a specific intersection in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, by December 31, 2026. Resolution is tied to specific layer shading on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map that must persist through an update cycle, or actual control via a negotiated settlement.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any part of the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia is continuously shaded on the ISW map under Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain or Assessed Russian Advances by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Shading under Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas or Claimed Russian Territory does not qualify. Actual control established via a negotiated settlement also triggers a Yes resolution, but mere de jure announcements do not. Once met, subsequent loss of control is disregarded. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. The primary decider is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a fallback, and a consensus of credible reporting if both are permanently unavailable. Temporary map glitches are ignored.
Resolution source
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap and credible reporting consensus as fallbacks
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·