Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide comprehensive and precise criteria for what constitutes a qualifying announcement, citing specific Russian statutory frameworks and explicitly distinguishing between general mobilization, routine biannual conscription, and reserve training assemblies. Clear boundaries are established for inclusions, exclusions, and statutory limits under Russian law. Resolution is tied directly to formal legal acts and official government announcements from the Russian State, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation or dispute over the event's occurrence by the stated deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Russian State will formally announce a new compulsory military mobilization or expand eligible categories by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia formally announces a new compulsory military mobilization under the September 2022 framework, expands categories under that framework, or authorizes a new compulsory mobilization outside it by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include formal legal acts like decrees, new waves, new age categories, new call-up authorizations, mandatory call-up quotas, or certain reserve measures that mandate combat deployment, exceed statutory limits, extend to the inactive reserve, or create new compulsory service categories. Ordinary conscription decrees, electronic summons measures, force-size increases, draft administration, contract recruitment, financial incentives, and standard reserve assemblies do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement occurs by the deadline. Official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either: (i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or (ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify. Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to: announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization; announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization; announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or Mandating a specific number of new call-ups. The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives. Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations; permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens; extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.