Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
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Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear, legally grounded criteria defining what constitutes a new compulsory mobilization versus ordinary draft mechanisms. Resolution relies directly on official legal acts and formal announcements published or issued by the Russian State, leaving minimal room for decider latitude. The text explicitly enumerates qualifying actions as well as specific exclusions, such as routine conscription decrees, electronic summons registers, and standard statutory reserve assemblies, making unexpected interpretations unlikely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Russian State will formally announce a new compulsory military mobilization or expand the categories of citizens subject to mobilization by September 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia formally announces a new compulsory military mobilization or expands eligible citizen categories under or outside the September 2022 framework by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include announcing a new mobilization wave, expanding age/citizen categories, authorizing new call-ups, mandating call-up numbers, or enacting certain reserve measures that involve combat deployment, retention beyond statutory limits, or mandatory service for inactive reservists. Ordinary conscription, electronic draft measures, armed forces size increases, contract recruitment, routine draft administration, and standard reserve assemblies do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such announcement or legal act occurs by the deadline. Official legal acts and announcements published or issued by the Russian State decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves based on announcements made on or before 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
Official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either: (i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or (ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify. Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to: announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization; announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization; announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or Mandating a specific number of new call-ups. The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives. Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations; permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens; extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.