Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the conditions for winning the gubernatorial race according to Nigerian legal standards, including requirements for runoffs and geographic vote distribution.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the conditions for winning the gubernatorial race according to Nigerian legal standards, including requirements for runoffs and geographic vote distribution. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, backed directly by official results from Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) if any ambiguity arises. The market accounts for potential election rescheduling and runoffs, backed by a clear long-stop resolution deadline of October 31, 2027, which resolves to Other if no definitive outcome is reached.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
66%
chance▲ +3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kaduna State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Market explained
This market measures whether Uba Sani will win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election for the term beginning in 2027. It includes a specific resolution fallback to "Other" if the outcome is not definitively known by the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Uba Sani wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election by satisfying legal requirements such as receiving the highest votes and the required geographic distribution. Interim, acting, or caretaker Governors do not qualify. The market resolves No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to "Other" if no candidate wins outright, no candidate is officially elected by the resolution deadline, or if results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no candidate wins outright initially, the market remains open for runoffs held before the deadline. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely via official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·