Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2026?
Current price
31.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 31.5%
$13.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly specified and rely on an objective, named metric: the 1-minute candle high on Binance's ETH/USDT pair. The market resolves immediately to Yes if the price reaches or exceeds $3,000 before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, and to No otherwise. There is minimal room for discretion or ambiguity, though participants should be aware that only the Binance ETH/USDT pair counts, excluding other trading pairs or exchanges.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $3,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Ethereum (ETH/USDT) reaches or exceeds $3,000 on Binance by December 31, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices on Binance's ETH/USDT pair, ignoring all other exchanges and trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market will immediately resolve to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the ETH/USDT pair shows a final High price equal to or greater than $3,000 at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to No. The deciding source is Binance price data from the ETH/USDT trading pair on 1-minute chart intervals. Prices from other trading pairs, spot markets, or exchanges are disregarded.
Key dates
- End date: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for ETH to reach $3,000
Resolution source
Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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