Will Republicans win the Georgia Governor election and Democrats win the Georgia Senate election?
Current price
47.5¢
−3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 47.5%
$3.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a win for each party and specifically require both the Republican victory in the Gubernatorial race and the Democratic victory in the Senate race. Resolution relies on consensus calls across three named major outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—with a clear fallback to official election certification if consensus is lacking. Potential runoff elections are explicitly accounted for, and there is a hard resolution deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if results remain unresolved or if an independent/third-party candidate prevails.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Georgia that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the 2026 Georgia general elections result in a split outcome where a Republican wins the Governor race and a Democrat wins the US Senate race. It includes any run-off elections and treats independent candidates separately from major parties.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with or nominated by the Republican Party wins the Georgia Gubernatorial race and a candidate affiliated with or nominated by the Democratic Party wins the Georgia US Senate race, inclusive of run-offs. The market resolves to No if this specific combination does not occur, such as a single-party sweep or the reverse split. The market resolves to Other if an independent or third-party candidate wins either race, or if the outcomes are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the races. If those three sources do not reach a consensus, resolution falls back to official certification. Candidates running as independents do not count for major party options.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — General elections scheduled date, inclusive of any run-offs
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not conclusively known by this date
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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