Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?
Last captured price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$247.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that Anthropic shares must be listed and open for trading on a public exchange before the stated deadline. Official regulatory filings, exchange confirmations, and company announcements serve as the primary resolution sources. One specific condition to note is that if Anthropic is acquired by a public company rather than conducting its own listing, the market immediately resolves to No.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic will complete an initial public offering (IPO) and have its shares listed and actively trading on a public exchange by October 15, 2026. An acquisition by an already public company triggers an immediate No resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on October 15, 2026. The market resolves to No if this condition is not met by the deadline, or immediately resolves to No if Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public. Resolution is determined using official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant exchange (such as SEC Form S-1, Form 8-A, exchange listing confirmations, and press releases), with a consensus of credible reporting also accepted.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Shares must be listed and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (e.g., SEC Form S-1, Form 8-A, exchange listing confirmations, official press releases) or a consensus of credible reporting.
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