Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.3¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.3%
$705.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a conviction, specifically addressing plea deals, verdicts based on lack of criminal responsibility due to mental illness, dismissals, and initial trial judgments versus appeals. Official court rulings serve as the primary resolution source. However, participants should note a potential timing extension: if a mistrial occurs and a retrial begins prior to December 31, 2026, resolution is delayed until that retrial finishes, even if it concludes after the stated calendar deadline. Additionally, the market features early resolution to No if all murder charges are dropped or reduced to non-murder offenses before the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Lindsay Clancy has been charged by The Commonwealth of Massachusetts with three counts of murder for the death of her three children. You can read more about that here: https://media.wbur.org/wp/2023/09/clancy-indictment.pdf. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lindsay Clancy is convicted of at least one murder charge in the ongoing Commonwealth v. Lindsay Clancy case by either the specified date, 11:59 PM ET or, in the event of a mistrial, by the end of any retrial that begins before that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, or results in a verdict of Not Guilty for all murder charges (including by reason of lack of criminal responsibility due to mental illness), this market will resolve to "No". A plea agreement will qualify to resolve this market "Yes" only if it results in a judgment of conviction for murder. If all murder charges against Clancy are dropped, or otherwise changed such that they are no longer considered murder, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lindsay Clancy is convicted of at least one murder charge in Commonwealth v. Lindsay Clancy by December 31, 2026. Resolution is based strictly on the initial court judgment, disregarding any future appeals.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lindsay Clancy is convicted of at least one murder charge by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or by the conclusion of any retrial that starts before that date following a mistrial. A plea agreement counts toward a Yes resolution only if it yields a conviction for murder. The market resolves to No if the case is dismissed, if no judgment is rendered, if all murder charges are dropped or reduced below murder, or if she receives a Not Guilty verdict on all murder charges, including by reason of lack of criminal responsibility due to mental illness. The initial judgment determines resolution, and appeals are ignored. The primary source is the ruling court's official judgment, though credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for conviction, or retrial start date in case of a mistrial
Resolution source
Official judgment delivered by the ruling court, or other credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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