Will Chen Ying win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether Chen Ying wins the Taitung County Magistrate election in Taiwan's scheduled local elections.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on whether Chen Ying wins the Taitung County Magistrate election in Taiwan's scheduled local elections. The rules specify a precise election date and define the winning condition as the candidate who becomes the next magistrate from this contest, explicitly excluding interim or placeholder appointments. Resolution defaults to credible media consensus with a binding tie-breaker relying solely on the official Central Election Commission database if any ambiguity arises. There is also a generous fallback deadline extending to June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if no candidate is certified by then.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
12%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Taitung County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Chen Ying will win the next Taitung County Magistrate election in Taiwan. It resolves based on the official or credibly reported election winner rather than temporary appointments made prior to the vote.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chen Ying becomes the next Magistrate of Taitung County as a result of the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·